You’ll notice that deaths and hospitalizations jumped significantly today, though still well below the projections. This was expected for various reasons, one being that Tuesdays can tend to have a bit of a bounce after the weekend data gets updated. Additionally, Illinois and New Jersey appear to finally be reporting hospitalization numbers, but they are all over the board, so it’s hard to know how trustworthy they are. If my expectations are right, tomorrow will see a sizable drop in deaths and a fairly flat change in beds. Another difficulty we’re seeing with the data is quite a few states seem to be only releasing their cumulative bed numbers, rather than just the current beds being used. Obviously, that skews things significantly.
And yet, at the end of the day, the projections are still very wrong.