Third Time’s the Charm

Those are the new forecasts from IHME today… just two days after their previous update said 82,000 would die, which replaced the previous forecast from last week of 94,000. Now before anyone says “Well, that’s because quarantine is working”… bear in mind, all of IHME’s projections have assumed “full social distancing til May”. So they aren’t revising from pre-quarantine to quarantine, but from bad models to slightly better models to even better models.

And remember, the CDC says 80,000 people died from the flu in the winter of 2017-2018.

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